Despite Hanjin’s receivership, a weak trade growth and fleet oversupply a gradual[ds_preview] market recovery is now expected, according to the shipping consultancy Drewry.
Worse than expected second quarter financial results will be followed by a better second half-year. But Drewry still expects container carriers to record a collective operating loss of 5 bill. $ this year. But thanks to improving freight rates and slightly higher cargo volumes next year could see a operating profit of 2.5 bill. $ in 2017.
However, this anticipated recovery will still leave pricing well below the average for 2015. A key unknown remains carrier commercial behaviour which has proven unpredictable and counterintuitive. Hanjin’s demise may mark a watershed in this regard, but liner complacency on the risks of insolvency may challenge this notion. Fuel prices are on the increase, this may support higher freight rates but also increases operational costs.
