As 2011 gets underway and the global economy continues to show signs of recovery, Cruise Line International Association (CLIA) and its 25 lines and member travel agents express confidence that the coming year and beyond will see record numbers of passengers, with the industry out-performing other segments of travel. A December survey of CLIA member travel agents found that 2010 was stronger than 2009 and that 93.6 % are optimistic about travel sales in 2011 and beyond. Eighty-six percent of agents anticipate cruise booking increases in 2011. Eighty-five percent expect the 2011 Wave Season (January – March) to surpass last year by 16 % on average. Agents also predict that cruises will outperform other types of travel in 2011 and in the coming years.
Driving the industry’s enthusiasm are the expected impact of new ships, continued diversification of global itineraries and new shipboard experiences[ds_preview], and the knowledge that, according to consumers’ perceptions, cruising offers exceptional value. In the December survey, agents reported that cruising has earned the #1 ranking in consumer interest compared to other types of travel largely because of perceived value, past cruise experience, price and excitement generated by new ships. When final figures are totaled, CLIA expects to report that member lines, operating at 103 % occupancy, carried 15 million people in 2010, including 11.1 million North Americans. The forecast for 2011 is 16 million passengers, an increase of 6.6 %, with 73 % of guests, or 11.68 million, coming from North America, and 27 %, or 4.32 million, sourced internationally.
»The cruise industry has ridden the economic storm of the past 18 plus months with remarkable resiliency, skill and success. We are confident that, just as 2010 showed impressive gains, 2011 will be another strong year, generating increased benefits for cruise lines, travel agents, the destinations we serve, as well as exciting opportunities for consumers,« said Jan Swartz, executive vice president of sales, marketing and customer service for Princess Cruises and Cunard Line and CLIA’s new marketing committee chair.
The laterst report of the European Cruise Council shows that the number of global cruise passengers continues to rise steadily, with the 2009 total of 17.5 million more than 22 % higher than in 2005. There was a slowdown in that growth during the recession-hit year of 2008, but even this started to accelerate again in 2009 and – set against the actual decline in most other sectors of travel and tourism – once again reflected the cruise industry’s resilience, which has been demonstrated during previous downturns caused by outside geo-political events. North America has stagnated in recent years, but the market within the EU has rapidly increased so the 2009 total was nearly treble that of 1999’s 1.7 million. This growth has also been reflected in the shift in sourcing by members of the North America-based Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA), which carry more than 97 % of all North American cruise passengers. In 2000 90 % of their carryings were North Americans, but this has fallen to 75 % with the majority of the other 25 % now being sourced from Europe. Although industry growth has been primarily driven by the aggressive newbuilding programmes of the larger groups which – as a result – operate about 80 % of global capacity, there is a healthy diversity of independently owned regional, national or niche brands which have ensured that passengers are being attracted from an increasingly broad age range and socio-economic demographic.
The Caribbean’s share of cruise capacity marketed in North America once topped 50 %, but had fallen to just over 37 % by 2008. Despite a small 2009 capacity increase, even greater increases elsewhere saw its share fall again. By comparison the Mediterranean’s share grew from 12.9 % to 18.2 % between 2006 and 2009 while Northern Europe’s share had gone up from 7.1 % to 9.1 % and Asia’s from 0.9 % to 2.5 %. Against a background of an 8 % increase in bed-days marketed by CLIA lines in North America, the Caribbean reversed its downward trend in 2010. This was mainly due to the introduction of the world’s largest cruise ship –the 5,600-passenger Oasis of the Seas from Royal Caribbean International, on weekly rotations in the Caribbean. A sister ship’s arrival at the end of 2010 year will also boost the Caribbean in 2011, but although Europe’s share fell slightly as a result – from 28.3 % to 27.5 % – the actual numbers cruising in the region still rose. These capacity shares would, in any case, show Europe with a greater proportion of cruise traffic if capacity marketed outside North America were brought into the equation. And the general trends of destinations – including Europe – taking share from the Caribbean looks set to resume by 2012; or even earlier as in 2011 RCI will have a record 11 ships in Europe during the summer, sister brand Celebrity six (including all four its new and largest Solstice ships, Holland America Line will have seven, and Norwegian Cruise Line ( three(including its latest and largest ship, Norwegian Epic). Other North America brands Carnival Cruise Lines and Princess Cruises will also have ships in the region.
The recent strong growth in the German market has primarily been down to a sustained capacity expansion programme by Aida, the market leader. Together with the efforts of pan-European brands Costa and MSC, the emergence of a major new player in the RCCL/TUI joint venture TUI Cruises and the efforts of the well-established German brands Hapag-Lloyd Cruises and Phoenix Reisen, this has pushed the German market through the one million passenger barrier. The potential, though, is much greater, given the 80 million German population – and the fact that it has the largest outbound tourism market in the world.
»The German population is nearly 30 % greater than that of the UK,« says Aida President Michael Thamm, »yet we still have 30 % fewer cruise passengers. So we can fairly say there is even greater potential here.«
TUI Cruises CEO Richard Vogel is not alone in forecasting a doubling of the German market over the next 8–10 years, although whether it will eventually overtake the UK market is still open to debate. »The fact that we and Aida both have 40 % first-timers shows that we are making progress in penetrating a market which is still underdeveloped compared with those more mature markets in the UK and the US«, he says.
Hapag-Lloyd Managing Director Sebastian Ahrens says: »Germany is still some way behind the UK in not yet having quite established cruising as part of the mainstream vacation sector – either with consumers or travel agents. »But that is why there is so much potential: once that happens, it will really take off. This has started to happen, but it is not quite there yet.«
