The future and its promises for the maritime industry are a hot topic not only in the context of the[ds_preview] world’s leading trade fair SMM. The industry neither lacks ideas nor products, as we will see in Hamburg’s exhibition halls. At the beginning of the event the »Maritime Future Summit«, co-developed and co-hosted by HANSA, will broaden our view with visions and ideas as well.
Now you might ask for the meaning as the industry is already sufficiently »busy« given the crisis-related challenges of today. This may be true for many shipping companies which are adressed first, and thus may be defined as prospect payers for innovation in the segment. Nevertheless the future is postponed at best and by no means cancelled. The shipping markets will probably not offer rapid growth rates of the immediate pre-crisis years soon. A return to positive development is considered safe, though. It is therefore not gazing into a crystal ball by the industry and us but forward thinking what is presented at the »Maritime Future Summit«.
Admittedly, it is somewhat nebulous to define the right point in time when »future technologies« are actually ready to be implemented. Are we in globalization mode or is it rather – in the face of various protectionist-seeming initiatives – a time of de-globalization? It is futile to speculate about this any further. Too much development depends on (economic) policy decisions: embargoes, FTAs, elections in key markets, Brexit, crises, wars and reconstruction, national economic policies – in China in particular – or interest rate trends of many central banks. As for individual case studies, and even more so in general, it is hard to present a reliable preview, as the recent past has repeatedly demonstrated.
Even assumptions regarded as »standard« for long have to be revised. An example? In the second quarter the combined shares of export giants Australia and Brazil in seaborne iron ore transport decreased for the first time in years. In contrast, previously minor players like India, Iran, Peru, Mongolia, Russia, Indonesia and Malaysia gained ground.
Political bar-room slogans do not provide any clues. Taking legitimate calls for less or no state interference into account, which demand governments should refrain from intervention in the economy, it is nevertheless advisable to keep talking with the industry. Such discussions ought to be free of ideology and full of foresight, in doubt guided by provisional assistance (without opening the nationalization tool box) in order to set an appropriate regulatory framework.
The future will be there – despite all the troubles and it would be shortsighted not to deal with it. Therefore, it is good that there are masterminds, even if their ideas are likely to be regarded as quite visionary or far ahead by some at first glance.
Enjoy reading!
Michael Meyer
