Disruptive trends affect the maritime industry and will bring about major changes in the future. Will unmanned vessels play a part or will Amazon take over shipping? Those were questions raised at the »Maritime Future Summit« during SMM
Co-hosted by HANSA, the first ever »Maritime Future Summit« has kicked off this year’s SMM trade show, gathering some[ds_preview] of the most progressive thinkers of the industry in Hamburg. A top class cast discussing challenges and presenting innovations for the future of shipping in front of more than 120 industry experts – the Maritime Future Summit strikes a nerve. The changes that lie ahead are huge and the maritime industry lags behind, compared to many other industries, when it comes to topics such as Big Data and Digitalization. At the same time, a future that looks totally different than today does not seem to be too far away. Digitalized and connected equipment and ships do not only bear theoretical chances, but provide significant advantages already today, such as greater efficiency and lower maintenance costs.
»In ten years we will have the first commercial application of an unmanned ship. Maybe in 20 years 10% of the world fleet will be unmanned,« Oskar Levander, VP Innovation at Rolls-Royce Marine, says, sharing his vision of what might lie ahead. For him, as for most other panellists at the summit, autonomous operation is not a question of »if« but of »when«. By 2020, Levander predicts there will be reduced crews and remote support for ships. By 2025 remotely controlled vessels will operate in coastal waters. Unmanned and autonomous vessels we will see by 2030 or 2035, Levander is convinced. First steps towards this future reality are already underway. The technical details are currently being researched and tested in projects such as AAWA.
Paolo Tonon, VP Head of Maersk Maritime Technology, can not totally agree: »I don’t forecast a containership without a crew, at least re-design of ships and components will take 30 to 40 years.« Not all ships are suited for unmanned operation, Levander admits. Dangerous cargo will always be transported on manned vessels. Also Willie Wagen, Director Market Innovation, Wärtsilä, is confident, that regulation, the biggest hurdle, will soon be adapted: »Regulators are much more open today.« The old rules were written without new possibilities in mind, Levander adds. Key flag states are very keen to adapt their rules, seeing it as a competitive advantage.
»The marine industry is under disruptive attack«
Willie Wagen, Wärtsilä
Working at the interface between design and operation, Tonon makes a point. Better and faster feedback from operators to designers could improve and speed up design and development processes, automated and connected equipment could do that even faster. »You don’t design a hull for a ship, but for a fleet,« Tonon adds and addresses another problem of the often unprogressive shipbuilding industry: standardization. »Today, most ships are prototypes. Comparing shipbuilding to the aerospace and automotive industries, we design over and over again, where it is unnecessary,« comments Levander.
Digitalization should not be limited to ships, equipment and ship-shore communication. Matthias Schulze, Head of Siemens Marine, promotes digitalization across the whole shipbuilding value chain: »It starts with design and engineering in the digital shipyard.« This is, where Denis Morais, Chief Technology Officer at SSI, sees shipbuilding »at a tipping point«. A whole collection of different drivers push for innovations right now. »Innovation will accelerate itself and we will have more and more tools in our toolbox to solve problems,« Morais says. In his opinion, infinite computing will open new possibilities and integration of customers in the design process will ensure faster feedback loops.
Keynote speaker Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO Maritime of DNV GL, predicts an increasingly complicated framework for shipping in general. From a technology point of view, unmanned ships are fully feasible, he says. This should be just a minor problem, compared to other issues that will have to be discussed, such as regulation and international standards. However, the biggest change he foresees for shipping in the future is the way, vessels will be powered. »LNG will be one of the most significant fuels of the future, driven by regulation and availability,« he says. But also natural gas has some regulatory and infrastructural hurdles to overcome. Ørbeck-Nilssen also sees biofuels, batteries and fuels cells to be a regular part of the mix. Siemens’s Matthias Schulze does not only predict a diversification of shipping fuels. For him, an answer to the environmental and economic challenges in the shipping industry lies in the hybridization of ships, using multiple technologies in one vessel.
»We need time, money, courage and products that are mature«
Matthias Schulze, Siemens
Hybrid technology, energy conversion, storage and management have paved the way for this approach also in shipping. »In many fields of energy improvement we can use technologies that are already available on board today,« he says, adding that today’s efficiency gains are not the end of possibilities. Siemens just recently proved the feasibility of hybrid technology on the new ferries for Scandlines.
According to Willie Wagen the marine industry is »under attack« by disruptive trends such as digitalization and green technologies and environmental regulation. But, in line with all panellists, rather than challenges, he sees chances for new business models for old players and new ones, that enter the market with new ideas.
Many maritime players and analysts acknowledge the edge that modern internet companies such as Google and Amazon have – and the maritime industry does not have. Wagen uses the occasion of the summit to present some of Wärtsilä’s visions for the future of shipping. The point is to be a part of that future, technologically as well as in terms of business models. »Shipping should be considered just a small part of a whole supply chain,« Levander comments. Customer-centred companies like Amazon could take over that supply chain and already are looking into the possibility of integrating shipping services. But what would be the role of the traditional shipowner then? Also new approaches to sharing assets, information and capacity could »take the middleman out of the game«, Wagen says. Time for new players and business models such as pay-per-use for providers of technologies or vessels.
This is where moderator Volker Bertram, World Maritime University, provocatively asks: »Will maritime Dinosaurs be replaced by new digital invasive species?« Benjamin Vernooij, Internet of Things and End User Computing Lead, Dell OEM Solutions, brings attention to the advantages that data competency will bring in the future. Huge amounts of data collected by sensors are a major challenge. »Gathering the data is nothing new or complex anymore, but how to make use of the data and get value out of it?« Vernooij asks. Maritime companies will not only have to think about automation and connected ships but also about filtering, analysing and using data. »Digitalization brings opportunities but also has flipsides,« Ørbeck-Nilssen says, meaning training needs and finding competent personnel.
»Information may be the currency of the future, but what about real money?« Volker Bertram asks Carsten Wiebers, Global Head of Maritime Industries, KfW IPEX, before his closing remarks. After a lot of visions and crytal-balling the banker looks at future technologies from the financers point of view. Future-oriented green and innovative shipping projects have a good chance to attract investors, Wiebers says. »Identify companies that are reasonably innovative. Those will stay in the future.«
