River cruising is a growing market, but far away from facing congestion. In the coming two years about 40 river cruise vessels will be launched, compared to eleven deliveries in the past five years
This year 23 river cruise vessels will be launched to sail the European waterways. In 2014 a total of 17[ds_preview] river cruise vessels are expected to be delivered. As the building process of a river cruise vessel takes approximately one year, further orders for 2014 are still possible.
Within the past five years (2008–2012) average deliveries amounted to approximately eleven river cruise vessels p. a., compared to an average of ca. 20 vessels p. a. for 2013 and 2014. This development is mainly driven by the tremendous expansion of Viking River Cruises with already six delivered vessels in 2012, ten deliveries scheduled for 2013 and another eight vessels joining the Viking fleet in 2014. Other major river cruise lines usually order a maximum of two to three vessels per year. Such an extensive expansion program was not seen before and influences the river cruise order book statistics greatly, as the decision of one cruise line may distort the overall picture.
Two predominant types of river cruise vessels (implying to the length of the vessels) evolved for the European waterways due to naturally and manmade borders such as river bend, locks and bridges: 110 m and 135 m class vessels, both with a maximum width of 11.45 m. The vessel classes have different characteristics concerning suitability for specific rivers and destinations.
From an objective point of view, more river cruise vessels of the 135 m class were ordered since 2011 than vessels of the 110 m class. Prior to 2011 the order book showed more 110 m than 135 m vessels. When taking Viking River Cruises with its orders of solely 135 m vessels out of this picture, the situation seems to be more balanced. Both vessel classes may offer advantages to different cruise lines of either flexibility and economic feasibility or fulfillment of passenger expectations.
Most vessels of the current order book to be operated on European waterways are being built for the English speaking source markets (USA, Canada, UK, Australia, and New Zealand). Only three vessels out of 23 for delivery in 2013 and one vessel out of 17 for delivery in 2014 will not be marketed for English speaking customers. Tour operators and especially cruise lines offering their products to those source markets recently stated an increased demand for river cruises in Europe, whereas for example the German speaking source market faced an unusual stagnated demand in 2012, which at least partly seemed to be caused by booking hesitation due to the »Costa Concordia« accident in early 2012. The numbers of cruise passengers were kept at the level of 2011 by implementing many discounted offers.
Due to the manageable construction period of river cruise vessels and hence a shorter reaction time of cruise lines, new orders seem to correspond with the development of demand rather than being of predominantly speculative nature. This goes in both directions, as seen in 2012 with the German cruise line A-Rosa Flusskreuzfahrten postponing a delivery for one year (from 2013 to 2014) due to changes in demand while at the same time Viking River Cruises increased their order by two vessels for delivery in 2013 at the same shipyard. Overall, the river cruise market is a growing industry, but far away from facing congestion. Although an increase in river cruise vessel orders is observed, the European fleet of currently approximately 240 river cruise
vessels is unlikely to congest the rivers compared to ca. 10,000 cargo river ships using the same infrastructure. However, the increasing amount of river cruise vessels also raises the demand for new and adequate port infrastructure respectively.
Helge Grammerstorf, Miriam Lüthje
