Despite much doom and gloom in the world economy, charter container ships remain few and far between. There are no signs of a downturn in chartering as more ships will be needed to make up for inefficiencies and speed reductions, says Thomas Kolb, a senior broker with Martini Chartering focusing on competitive business.[ds_preview]
The orderbook for container ships is now at 27 % of existing capacity – isn’t it madness?
Thomas Kolb: No doubt, the present order book is huge. However from a historical point of view 27 % isn‘t that much compared to 2007 when the ratio was about 65 %. Also the amount of capacity ordered by non-operating/tramp owners »on spec« now is much less at about 14 % of total capacity on order. Furthermore, transport chain disruptions, port congestion and forthcoming emission regulations with ensuing service speed reductions will likely result in additional tonnage demand by shipping lines – maybe a lot more than people expect today. On the other hand, the ordering spree might still continue if market fundamentals remain unchange…
Zero covid in China, port congestion, war, inflation … Market stability seems a long way off. What are your expectations for the second half of the year?
Kolb: During the past two years, market instability has led to increasing demand in a way which no one could foresee. This is likely to prevail for some more time, especially considering the fact that much of the present charter fleet is committed while shipping lines are running very profitable services.
There is hardly any reason why the container chartering market should change considerably during the next months. Demand remains decent while some of those lines, that had been reluctant to charter, are active in purchasing vessels instead. As a result, charter tonnage availability is further diminished.
How many box ships are left to fix this year? How acute is the lack of tonnage?
Kolb: Looking at present numbers it is obvious that container ship supply will remain very limited during the next 6 months. Our total count of available vessels six months ahead is down about 67 % compared to the same time last year. Especially ships of 2,000 TEU and bigger will remain hard to get by.
Newcomers/niche carriers have gained a greater market share. Will they remain part of the game or fade away if things »normalise«?
Kolb: The newly established container shipping lines are keeping the market active. Seeing how they charter in tonnage for longer periods and how they add employees and office space, many of them expect to remain in the game for a long time to come. For shipowners, shippers and other stakeholders in the liner shipping market this is a very positive development after many years of consolidation and a consequential reduction in the number of carriers.
Interview: Michael Hollmann
